RICHMOND, Va. — President Obama today said he was “proud” and
“humbled” to learn he has the support of former Secretary of State Colin
Powell, who announced this morning that he is endorsing Obama for a
second term.
“I’m grateful to him for his lifetime of service to his country both
as a soldier and as a diplomat,” the president told 15,000 Virginians
this afternoon. “And every brave American who wears this uniform of this
country should know that as long as I’m your commander in chief, we
will sustain the strongest military the world has ever known. We will be
relentless in pursuit of our enemies. Those are promises I’ve kept.”
Powell, who broke with the Republican Party to endorse then-Senator
Obama in 2008, offered his continued support for the president today,
saying he’s concerned Mitt Romney’s foreign policy is a “moving target.”
“I voted for him in 2008 and I plan to stick with him in 2012, and
I’ll be voting for he and for Vice President Joe Biden next month,”
Powell told CBS News.
Powell cited the president’s handling of the economy and foreign
policy in explaining his decision. “When he took over the country was in
very, very difficult straits, we were in one of the worst recessions we
had seen in recent times, close to a depression,” Powell said. “We were
in real trouble.”
“I saw over the next several years stabilization come back in the
financial community, housing is now starting to pick up after four
years, it’s starting to pick up. Consumer confidence is rising. So I
think generally we’ve come out of the dive and we’re starting to gain
altitude,” Powell explained. “It doesn’t mean we are problem solved,
there are lots of problems still out there. The unemployment rate is too
high. People are still hurting in housing. But I see that we are
starting to rise up.”
Powell, who served as secretary of state under George W. Bush from
2001 to 2005, praised Obama for ending the war in Iraq and winding down
the war in Afghanistan, adding that he “did not get us into any new
wars.” The retired four-star general went on to call Obama’s actions to
protect the U.S. from terrorist threats “very, very solid.”
Powell said he had the “utmost respect” for Mitt Romney but was
concerned about his shifting foreign policies. “The governor who was
speaking on Monday night at the debate was saying things that were quite
different from what he’s said earlier, so I’m not quite sure what
Governor Romney we would be getting with respect to foreign policy,” he
said.
He also took issue with Romney’s economic proposals. “As I listen to
what his proposals are especially with respect to dealing with our most
significant issue, the economy, it’s essentially let’s cut taxes and
compensate for that with other things. But that compensation does not
cover all of the cuts intended or the new expenses associated with
defense,” he said.
The announcement came as a surprise to the president and his
campaign. Obama called Powell this morning to personally thank him for
his support.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Hurricane Sandy could be a monster when it hits U.S. coast
Hurricane Sandy
will probably grow into a “Frankenstorm” that may become the worst to
hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years if current forecasts are correct.
Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland. The hurricane currently passing the Bahamas has killed 21 people across the Caribbean, the Associated Press reported, citing local officials.
“What we’re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,” Kocin said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We’re not trying to hype it, this is what we’re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.”
The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go ashore in New Jersey on Tuesday, although landfall predictions often change as storms get closer to shore.
A tropical-storm watch was issued from Savannah River northward to Oregon Inlet in North Carolina, the U.S. NHC said in an advisory. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Florida’s east coast from Ocean Reef to Flagler Beach. A storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the region, a warning means tropical storm conditions are expected.
“If the storm follows the current hurricane center forecast, we are looking at over $5 billion in damage,” Chuck Watson, director of research and development at Kinetic Analysis Corp. in Silver Spring, Maryland, said yesterday.
Watson said the track may change quite a bit between now and early next week. An accurate assessment of potential damage from wind and rain probably can’t be made until late this week.
As of 5 a.m. New York time, Sandy had weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of 80 mph, down from 100 mph earlier, according to the hurricane center in Miami. It was 15 miles east-southeast of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas and 485 miles south-southeast of Charleston, S.C., and moving northwest at 13 mph.
The 1938 hurricane killed more than 500 people after crossing Long Island and battering Connecticut and Rhode Island.
"We can say even now our worst fears may be realized,” Kocin said. “If we were seeing what we’re seeing today one day out, we would really be shouting the alarms.”
Governments along the East Coast are preparing for Sandy’s impact. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo directed state agencies to monitor the storm and Massachusetts’s Emergency Management Agency warned residents to expect the worst.
New York City has a 55 percent chance of winds of at least 39 mph by Oct. 30, according to estimates by Tropical Storm Risk, a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and climate supported by the U.K. government.
The center’s track predicts landfall between Atlantic City and Toms River, N.J.
Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland. The hurricane currently passing the Bahamas has killed 21 people across the Caribbean, the Associated Press reported, citing local officials.
“What we’re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,” Kocin said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We’re not trying to hype it, this is what we’re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.”
The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go ashore in New Jersey on Tuesday, although landfall predictions often change as storms get closer to shore.
A tropical-storm watch was issued from Savannah River northward to Oregon Inlet in North Carolina, the U.S. NHC said in an advisory. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Florida’s east coast from Ocean Reef to Flagler Beach. A storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the region, a warning means tropical storm conditions are expected.
“If the storm follows the current hurricane center forecast, we are looking at over $5 billion in damage,” Chuck Watson, director of research and development at Kinetic Analysis Corp. in Silver Spring, Maryland, said yesterday.
Watson said the track may change quite a bit between now and early next week. An accurate assessment of potential damage from wind and rain probably can’t be made until late this week.
As of 5 a.m. New York time, Sandy had weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of 80 mph, down from 100 mph earlier, according to the hurricane center in Miami. It was 15 miles east-southeast of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas and 485 miles south-southeast of Charleston, S.C., and moving northwest at 13 mph.
The 1938 hurricane killed more than 500 people after crossing Long Island and battering Connecticut and Rhode Island.
"We can say even now our worst fears may be realized,” Kocin said. “If we were seeing what we’re seeing today one day out, we would really be shouting the alarms.”
Governments along the East Coast are preparing for Sandy’s impact. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo directed state agencies to monitor the storm and Massachusetts’s Emergency Management Agency warned residents to expect the worst.
New York City has a 55 percent chance of winds of at least 39 mph by Oct. 30, according to estimates by Tropical Storm Risk, a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and climate supported by the U.K. government.
The center’s track predicts landfall between Atlantic City and Toms River, N.J.
SAT and ACT Officials Answer Readers’ Questions About Standardized Tests
The Choice has invited Kathryn Juric, the vice president of the SAT program, and Jon Erickson, the president of the education division at the ACT, to answer readers’ questions about standardized tests in the blog’s Guidance Office, a forum for college applicants and their families seeking expert advice.
We hope the moderated Q. and A. session, which began on Monday, will help you and other readers of this blog have a better understanding of each test and, perhaps, ease some anxieties.
We have included answers that would be most relevant to prospective international students. Please feel free to visit The Choice for the complete series.
The questions we’ve posed are based on readers’ submissions. Some answers have been edited, including for length and style. — Tanya Abrams
— From Roxlet
Ms. Juric: Today, nearly all four-year undergraduate colleges and universities require a college-entrance exam like the SAT, and even test-optional institutions accept and review SAT scores when submitted as part of a holistic review of a student’s likelihood of success at a particular institution. We believe the SAT measures a student’s ability to apply the skills they have learned in high school, in turn demonstrating to admission counselors their college preparedness. The question of which college entrance exam a college or university prefers is best answered by the admission staff at the colleges and universities to which you are applying, bearing in mind that scores from college entrance exams are just one aspect of your overall application.
— From Elizabeth Walsh
If students decide to take both tests, they can usually send both sets of scores without worrying which one is higher. Most colleges will use the highest scores they receive to the advantage of the student. Students should check the particular college’s policies on test scores before making this decision.
Sending both sets of scores can be a good idea for another reason: The more colleges know about a student, the better they can decide if that student is a good fit for their institution and, once a student has been admitted, the better they will understand what they can do to best help that student succeed on campus.
Ms. Juric: We strongly recommend that students take the SAT in the spring of junior year and again in the fall of senior year, as the majority of students who take the SAT twice improve their scores.
For those students who decide to take each test once, we recommend that students use the SAT-ACT Concordance Table. Concordance tables are what college admission officers use to compare SAT and ACT scores.
Unfortunately, many students and educators make the mistake of comparing percentile information from the two tests, which is not an accurate comparison. Percentile ranks should not be used to compare SAT and ACT scores, as the population of test-takers is different, and a higher percentile rank on the ACT may not mean the student’s ACT score is better than his or her SAT score.
It should be noted that the College Board does not support the use of ACT’s Estimated Relationship Table because it compares the SAT composite to the ACT without writing, which is not a valid comparison.
— Tanya Abrams, The Choice
— From NE mom
Since no points are deducted for leaving an answer blank, random guessing is not recommended on the PSAT/NMSQT, SAT or SAT subject tests. If you cannot eliminate any wrong answers, it is best to skip the question. If you can eliminate one or more wrong answers, you should consider making an educated guess from the remaining choices.
Mr. Erickson: On the ACT, students are not penalized for incorrect answers; ACT scores are calculated based only on the number of questions answered correctly. On test day, ACT test supervisors encourage students to make sure they answer every question, because there is no penalty for incorrect answers on our exam. If they don’t know the correct answer, they would be best served to eliminate the possible answers they know to be incorrect and then make their best choice from the remaining answers.
— From Susan Morris and Jane
We chose to make the ACT writing test optional because the majority of colleges don’t require writing scores for admission. Many colleges already have a means of assessing writing, like personal essays and institution-specific writing tests, which are established and working well.
We wanted to provide a flexible, student-focused solution that would also work for colleges and universities. Our optional approach gives colleges the freedom to require the tests that best meet their informational needs. It also allows students the flexibility to decide whether or not to take the writing test based on the requirements of the institutions they hope to attend.
Ms. Juric: The College Board believes passionately that writing is a critical skill for success in college, no matter what field of study the student is pursuing.
When students send official SAT score reports, scores for all three sections of the SAT are included regardless of the institution’s specific admission requirements. In addition to being able to review the overall writing section score, colleges and universities also have the ability to download and review each applicant’s SAT essay. This is valuable because it gives admissions officers the opportunity to understand how a student writes in a timed, proctored setting without input from teachers, parents or other resources.
We believe that the SAT writing section is valuable to all colleges and universities because it provides admission officers with greater insight into a student’s ability to communicate by measuring his or her ability to develop and express ideas clearly and effectively.
— izaz haque
The ideal time for many students to take the ACT may be the spring of their junior year in high school. By then, most students have taken adequate course work to develop the skills measured by the ACT, but they still have time to address any weaknesses through summer or fall course work, retake the ACT, and meet most admission and scholarship deadlines. Students who wait until 12th grade to take the ACT don’t have much time to make adjustments.
During 11th grade, many students are already thinking about their college choices and majors. By testing in the spring of their junior year, students are, in essence, kicking off their college search process and taking an important step in communicating with colleges. The ACT also includes a career guidance interest inventory, which can help students plan for the future. Our research shows another benefit to taking the test in 11th grade: early test takers improve their scholarship and admissions prospects.
Ultimately, each student must decide when he or she is ready to take the ACT, but we recommend not waiting too long.
Ms. Juric: For the majority of students, the College Board recommends taking the SAT twice — once in the spring of junior year and again in the fall of senior year. Keep in mind that most students achieve a modest increase in performance when taking the test a second time because of greater familiarity with the test-taking process and because of the additional high school course work completed between test dates. Which specific test dates you select should be based on your personal level of academic preparedness and the application deadlines for the colleges to which you are applying.
What is your response to criticism that these exams are more a reflection of affluence and privilege than they are a predictor of college success?
— From Annie, Hank, Elizabeth Sweet, Jane, and Jennifer Perton
A 2002 report from the National Center for Education Statistics suggests that high school graduation rates, college enrollment rates and bachelor’s degree attainment rates all vary by socioeconomic factors, including family income and parental education.
We believe it is important to look at a number of factors – including SAT scores, high school G.P.A., strength of high school curriculum, rigor of coursework completed, etc. – when assessing a student’s likelihood for college success. Research consistently shows that the SAT, when combined with high school G.P.A., is the best predictor of first-year college success for all students – regardless of demographic, geographic or socioeconomic differences.
According to a recent report from the National Association for College Admission Counseling, admission test scores ranked as the third-most important factor in the admission decision, behind only grades in college prep courses and strength of curriculum. Nearly all four-year undergraduate colleges and universities continue to require entrance exam scores, and many test-optional colleges limit those policies to applicants who meet other requirements.
Mr. Erickson: We understand that sometimes there is confusion about what standardized tests are designed to do. The ACT is a curriculum-based achievement exam, which means it’s designed to measure what a student has learned in science, math, reading and English classes throughout his or her time in school. We continually update our exam to make sure it reflects what is taught in America’s schools and deemed important for success in college courses.
Our research findings, as well as those of others, consistently show that ACT scores are an excellent predictor of how well a student will perform in the first year of college, as are high school grades. The most effective way to determine if students are ready for college, however, is by looking at their ACT scores and high school grades combined.
The ACT measures the knowledge and skills a student has accumulated over time. ACT has compiled volumes of research data that show the importance of those skills in college and career success. Of course, we realize that success in college is dependent on a variety of factors. Some students don’t have equal access to high-quality teaching and curricula in their K-12 years. But with opportunity and support, those students can achieve to high levels in college and beyond. The ACT is designed to help students and colleges understand each student’s readiness and the appropriate steps needed to help that student succeed.
At ACT, we want every student to have an equal opportunity to show what they have learned, which is why we work diligently to ensure that our exam meets the highest levels of fairness. Every ACT test question is evaluated for fairness and sensitivity through research and through multiple reviewers — both internal and external to ACT — who come from a wide range of social and ethnic backgrounds and cultural experiences.
In what ways might a student’s score in fact be a reflection of his or her access to tutors? And, given the socioeconomic disparities that you’ve mentioned, how might a student of limited resources prove that he is college-ready, if his test scores are lower than a peer who has been tutored?
— From Utsav, Lauren
Students should not be discouraged if they cannot afford private tutoring or paid test-prep courses. Independent research has shown that the score gains realized through paid test prep are about the same as the score gains realized from taking a college entrance exam a second time. The idea that there are “tricks” that must be mastered is a myth perpetuated by those who seek to profit from test-prep services.
The SAT Web site has information to help students familiarize themselves with the SAT, and a number of our SAT practice materials — including test-taking tips for each section of the exam, a full-length practice test, and hundreds of additional practice questions — are available free. We also offer a “test-day simulator” that gives students a sense of what to expect on test day. Students who use these resources to familiarize themselves with the test and who have been working hard and challenging themselves in the classroom should feel confident on test day.
Mr. Erickson: Our own research and that of others have shown that short-term test-prep activities tend to have only minimal impact on ACT scores compared to long-term activities like taking rigorous course work in school. Tutoring that focuses on helping a student learn more skills and knowledge in core subject areas could certainly help improve that student’s performance on the ACT, but that tends to be a longer-term proposition.
The ACT is a curriculum-based achievement exam that measures the body of knowledge that students have learned throughout their schooling. The best way to prepare for the ACT is to take challenging courses in school, study hard and learn the material covered. It’s not access to expensive test-prep programs that helps students from higher-income settings perform better on tests, it’s access to higher-quality schools and more effective teachers with greater resources at their disposal.
Encouragingly, our data show that students who take the recommended core curriculum of courses in high school — four years of English and three years each of math (algebra and higher), science, and social studies — perform significantly better than those who take less than this core regardless of their background. In our country, with access to technology and the Internet in schools and public libraries, those seeking to learn can do so at no cost.
As for test-taking tips and skills, there are many free resources available, including ACT’s student Web site. We also encourage students to take advantage of school resources, especially counselors, and summer learning opportunities offered by many community and four-year colleges.
We hope the moderated Q. and A. session, which began on Monday, will help you and other readers of this blog have a better understanding of each test and, perhaps, ease some anxieties.
We have included answers that would be most relevant to prospective international students. Please feel free to visit The Choice for the complete series.
The questions we’ve posed are based on readers’ submissions. Some answers have been edited, including for length and style. — Tanya Abrams
Comparing the SAT and ACT
Q.
Readers are grappling over whether to take the SAT, ACT or both. Do
colleges and universities prefer one exam over the other, or do the
preferences vary based on the type of institution?— From Roxlet
A.
Mr. Erickson:
All accredited American colleges and universities accept scores from
either the ACT or the SAT without preference or prejudice. This has been
the case for many years. Both organizations provide on their Web sites a
table that students and admission officers can use to compare scores on
the two tests, and many colleges develop their own similar tables based
on their applicants.Ms. Juric: Today, nearly all four-year undergraduate colleges and universities require a college-entrance exam like the SAT, and even test-optional institutions accept and review SAT scores when submitted as part of a holistic review of a student’s likelihood of success at a particular institution. We believe the SAT measures a student’s ability to apply the skills they have learned in high school, in turn demonstrating to admission counselors their college preparedness. The question of which college entrance exam a college or university prefers is best answered by the admission staff at the colleges and universities to which you are applying, bearing in mind that scores from college entrance exams are just one aspect of your overall application.
Q.
What should a student do if she performs better on one exam than the other?— From Elizabeth Walsh
A.
Mr. Erickson:
College is very important, so students should put their best foot
forward during the admission process. There are distinct differences
between the two tests, and we think it’s a good idea for students to
familiarize themselves with these differences before registering to take
a test. For example, the ACT’s writing test is optional. In addition,
the ACT includes a science test as well as an interest inventory that
can help colleges understand more about the student.If students decide to take both tests, they can usually send both sets of scores without worrying which one is higher. Most colleges will use the highest scores they receive to the advantage of the student. Students should check the particular college’s policies on test scores before making this decision.
Sending both sets of scores can be a good idea for another reason: The more colleges know about a student, the better they can decide if that student is a good fit for their institution and, once a student has been admitted, the better they will understand what they can do to best help that student succeed on campus.
Ms. Juric: We strongly recommend that students take the SAT in the spring of junior year and again in the fall of senior year, as the majority of students who take the SAT twice improve their scores.
For those students who decide to take each test once, we recommend that students use the SAT-ACT Concordance Table. Concordance tables are what college admission officers use to compare SAT and ACT scores.
Unfortunately, many students and educators make the mistake of comparing percentile information from the two tests, which is not an accurate comparison. Percentile ranks should not be used to compare SAT and ACT scores, as the population of test-takers is different, and a higher percentile rank on the ACT may not mean the student’s ACT score is better than his or her SAT score.
It should be noted that the College Board does not support the use of ACT’s Estimated Relationship Table because it compares the SAT composite to the ACT without writing, which is not a valid comparison.
Q.
Mr. Erickson, do
you agree that it is inaccurate to compare percentile information of
each test? How do you respond to the assertion that ACT’s Estimated
Relationship Table is not a valid comparison of SAT scores?— Tanya Abrams, The Choice
A.
Mr. Erickson:
It’s important to remember that the ACT and the SAT are different tests
that take different approaches to measuring college readiness. ACT
provides the Estimated Relationship Table
to help students and parents compare the two scores. This table is
valuable to students who are applying to colleges that consider all
three SAT scores in their admission process. A number of ACT-SAT score
concordance tables can be found, not only on each organization’s Web
site, but also on individual colleges’ Web sites, which can help a
student get a feel for their “best” scores. Ultimately, however, I would
suggest that students simply send out whatever scores and profiles they
feel best represent themselves — or send out both sets of scores —
rather than stressing too much about which scores are higher.Guessing
Q.
When is it O.K. to guess if you don’t know the answer? Please explain how wrong answers are scored on the PSAT, SAT and ACT.— From NE mom
A.
Ms. Juric:
On the PSAT/NMSQT, the SAT and the SAT subject tests, one-quarter point
is deducted for incorrect answers to multiple-choice questions, while
no points are deducted if the answer is left blank. It’s also important
to remember that no points are deducted for incorrect answers to the
grid-in responses in the mathematics section of the PSAT/NMSQT and SAT.Since no points are deducted for leaving an answer blank, random guessing is not recommended on the PSAT/NMSQT, SAT or SAT subject tests. If you cannot eliminate any wrong answers, it is best to skip the question. If you can eliminate one or more wrong answers, you should consider making an educated guess from the remaining choices.
Mr. Erickson: On the ACT, students are not penalized for incorrect answers; ACT scores are calculated based only on the number of questions answered correctly. On test day, ACT test supervisors encourage students to make sure they answer every question, because there is no penalty for incorrect answers on our exam. If they don’t know the correct answer, they would be best served to eliminate the possible answers they know to be incorrect and then make their best choice from the remaining answers.
The Writing Section
Q.
What is the rationale behind the writing sections of the ACT and SAT,
if some colleges and universities do not consider that section?— From Susan Morris and Jane
A.
Mr. Erickson:
The rationale behind ACT’s decision to add a writing test was to
provide colleges with another piece of information on which to make
effective admission and placement decisions. The ACT writing test was
developed to reflect the type of writing found in rigorous high school
courses and expected of students entering first-year college composition
courses.We chose to make the ACT writing test optional because the majority of colleges don’t require writing scores for admission. Many colleges already have a means of assessing writing, like personal essays and institution-specific writing tests, which are established and working well.
We wanted to provide a flexible, student-focused solution that would also work for colleges and universities. Our optional approach gives colleges the freedom to require the tests that best meet their informational needs. It also allows students the flexibility to decide whether or not to take the writing test based on the requirements of the institutions they hope to attend.
Ms. Juric: The College Board believes passionately that writing is a critical skill for success in college, no matter what field of study the student is pursuing.
When students send official SAT score reports, scores for all three sections of the SAT are included regardless of the institution’s specific admission requirements. In addition to being able to review the overall writing section score, colleges and universities also have the ability to download and review each applicant’s SAT essay. This is valuable because it gives admissions officers the opportunity to understand how a student writes in a timed, proctored setting without input from teachers, parents or other resources.
We believe that the SAT writing section is valuable to all colleges and universities because it provides admission officers with greater insight into a student’s ability to communicate by measuring his or her ability to develop and express ideas clearly and effectively.
Ideal Test Dates
Q.
When is the best time for juniors and seniors to take the ACT and SAT? When should students retake the exam?— izaz haque
A.
Mr. Erickson:
No single answer to this question is correct for all students, but, in
general, we recommend that students take the ACT sooner rather than
later.The ideal time for many students to take the ACT may be the spring of their junior year in high school. By then, most students have taken adequate course work to develop the skills measured by the ACT, but they still have time to address any weaknesses through summer or fall course work, retake the ACT, and meet most admission and scholarship deadlines. Students who wait until 12th grade to take the ACT don’t have much time to make adjustments.
During 11th grade, many students are already thinking about their college choices and majors. By testing in the spring of their junior year, students are, in essence, kicking off their college search process and taking an important step in communicating with colleges. The ACT also includes a career guidance interest inventory, which can help students plan for the future. Our research shows another benefit to taking the test in 11th grade: early test takers improve their scholarship and admissions prospects.
Ultimately, each student must decide when he or she is ready to take the ACT, but we recommend not waiting too long.
Ms. Juric: For the majority of students, the College Board recommends taking the SAT twice — once in the spring of junior year and again in the fall of senior year. Keep in mind that most students achieve a modest increase in performance when taking the test a second time because of greater familiarity with the test-taking process and because of the additional high school course work completed between test dates. Which specific test dates you select should be based on your personal level of academic preparedness and the application deadlines for the colleges to which you are applying.
Test-Optional Colleges and the Value of Standardized Tests
Q.
A number of colleges and universities have become test-optional,
meaning that they no longer require the SAT or ACT to be considered for
admission. Some would argue that such a policy is rooted in the idea
that standardized tests do a poor job of showing the merits of the whole
student, or that they discriminate against some minorities and students
with limited resources.What is your response to criticism that these exams are more a reflection of affluence and privilege than they are a predictor of college success?
— From Annie, Hank, Elizabeth Sweet, Jane, and Jennifer Perton
A.
Ms. Juric:
We believe that the correlation between SAT performance and family
income is not a result of issues inherent to the test itself, but rather
educational inequality more broadly. A recent study
in Psychological Science showed that the SAT and high school grade
point average have essentially the same predictive value of first-year
college G.P.A. — after controlling for socioeconomic status.A 2002 report from the National Center for Education Statistics suggests that high school graduation rates, college enrollment rates and bachelor’s degree attainment rates all vary by socioeconomic factors, including family income and parental education.
We believe it is important to look at a number of factors – including SAT scores, high school G.P.A., strength of high school curriculum, rigor of coursework completed, etc. – when assessing a student’s likelihood for college success. Research consistently shows that the SAT, when combined with high school G.P.A., is the best predictor of first-year college success for all students – regardless of demographic, geographic or socioeconomic differences.
According to a recent report from the National Association for College Admission Counseling, admission test scores ranked as the third-most important factor in the admission decision, behind only grades in college prep courses and strength of curriculum. Nearly all four-year undergraduate colleges and universities continue to require entrance exam scores, and many test-optional colleges limit those policies to applicants who meet other requirements.
Mr. Erickson: We understand that sometimes there is confusion about what standardized tests are designed to do. The ACT is a curriculum-based achievement exam, which means it’s designed to measure what a student has learned in science, math, reading and English classes throughout his or her time in school. We continually update our exam to make sure it reflects what is taught in America’s schools and deemed important for success in college courses.
Our research findings, as well as those of others, consistently show that ACT scores are an excellent predictor of how well a student will perform in the first year of college, as are high school grades. The most effective way to determine if students are ready for college, however, is by looking at their ACT scores and high school grades combined.
The ACT measures the knowledge and skills a student has accumulated over time. ACT has compiled volumes of research data that show the importance of those skills in college and career success. Of course, we realize that success in college is dependent on a variety of factors. Some students don’t have equal access to high-quality teaching and curricula in their K-12 years. But with opportunity and support, those students can achieve to high levels in college and beyond. The ACT is designed to help students and colleges understand each student’s readiness and the appropriate steps needed to help that student succeed.
At ACT, we want every student to have an equal opportunity to show what they have learned, which is why we work diligently to ensure that our exam meets the highest levels of fairness. Every ACT test question is evaluated for fairness and sensitivity through research and through multiple reviewers — both internal and external to ACT — who come from a wide range of social and ethnic backgrounds and cultural experiences.
The Tutor Effect
Q.
You have both stated that combining SAT or ACT scores with high school
grades is the best way to predict college success. But what about those
families who can’t afford private tutors? One reader, Utsav, wonders
whether your exams are in fact “a measure of the amount of resources
available to a student rather than the academic capabilities of said
student.” Lauren, a self-described “former SAT verbal and writing
tutor,” says that she spent a lot of time covering vocabulary and
test-taking “tricks” that could “drastically” increase a student’s
score.In what ways might a student’s score in fact be a reflection of his or her access to tutors? And, given the socioeconomic disparities that you’ve mentioned, how might a student of limited resources prove that he is college-ready, if his test scores are lower than a peer who has been tutored?
— From Utsav, Lauren
A.
Ms. Juric: We cannot emphasize enough that the key to success on the SAT is not paid test-prep or private tutoring. The students who perform best
on the SAT are those who complete a core curriculum and pursue the most
rigorous course work available in their high school, and this holds
true for students at every family income level.Students should not be discouraged if they cannot afford private tutoring or paid test-prep courses. Independent research has shown that the score gains realized through paid test prep are about the same as the score gains realized from taking a college entrance exam a second time. The idea that there are “tricks” that must be mastered is a myth perpetuated by those who seek to profit from test-prep services.
The SAT Web site has information to help students familiarize themselves with the SAT, and a number of our SAT practice materials — including test-taking tips for each section of the exam, a full-length practice test, and hundreds of additional practice questions — are available free. We also offer a “test-day simulator” that gives students a sense of what to expect on test day. Students who use these resources to familiarize themselves with the test and who have been working hard and challenging themselves in the classroom should feel confident on test day.
Mr. Erickson: Our own research and that of others have shown that short-term test-prep activities tend to have only minimal impact on ACT scores compared to long-term activities like taking rigorous course work in school. Tutoring that focuses on helping a student learn more skills and knowledge in core subject areas could certainly help improve that student’s performance on the ACT, but that tends to be a longer-term proposition.
The ACT is a curriculum-based achievement exam that measures the body of knowledge that students have learned throughout their schooling. The best way to prepare for the ACT is to take challenging courses in school, study hard and learn the material covered. It’s not access to expensive test-prep programs that helps students from higher-income settings perform better on tests, it’s access to higher-quality schools and more effective teachers with greater resources at their disposal.
Encouragingly, our data show that students who take the recommended core curriculum of courses in high school — four years of English and three years each of math (algebra and higher), science, and social studies — perform significantly better than those who take less than this core regardless of their background. In our country, with access to technology and the Internet in schools and public libraries, those seeking to learn can do so at no cost.
As for test-taking tips and skills, there are many free resources available, including ACT’s student Web site. We also encourage students to take advantage of school resources, especially counselors, and summer learning opportunities offered by many community and four-year colleges.
How to see a World Series game for free
SAN FRANCISCO -- The best view at AT&T Park isn’t the upper deck
behind home plate with its gorgeous vista of the Bay Bridge and the
marina as the water extends across the horizon to Oakland.
No, the best view is the one in the right field, where fans get to watch Giants games for free, peering through a gate but with a ground-level view of the action.
Each
game, the Giants filter through 450 fans -- 150 at a time, for three
innings apiece. Where else can you see a World Series game for free?
Scott, a 47-year-old fan from Sacramento, Calif., didn’t want his last name used since he was skipping out of work, but he had left at 6 a.m. to pick up his friend, Mike Costuros. They arrived at 9:30 a.m. to get to the front of the line. Actually, Mike was in line at 9:30. Scott got there at 10 after parking more than a mile from the ballpark.
“We’ve been looking forward to this, watching six elimination games, calling each other,” Scott said. “We didn’t come last night because of [Justin] Verlander.”
“We thought we’d lose,” Mike said.
The two had looked online for tickets, but Mike said the cheapest he found were standing-room-only seats for $380 -- and that was before the Giants beat the Cardinals in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. After that game, tickets were going for $1,000 or more.
Instead, Scott said this will cost them $20 -- $6 to cross the Bay Bridge, $10 to park and $4 to cross back over the Carquinez Bridge. “I took my son two years ago for $17. This year I paid inflationary prices.”
The two had brought chicken sandwiches, Big Hunk candy bars -- “I always have Big Hunk candy bars when I watch baseball,” Scott said -- and said they had to come tonight because the series may not to return to San Francisco. “The Giants are going to sweep,” Scott said. “It’s possible we could get an epic series and the Giants win Game 6 on Halloween, but the Giants are on fire right now.”
Gregg Bernheisel had come from even farther than Sacramento. He and his two sons, Ryan, 16, and Michael, 17, flew down from Vashon Island, Wash. They had to catch a 4 a.m. ferry to get to the airport for a 6 a.m. flight.
“We had tickets for Games 6 and 7 two years ago and were going to drive down,” Gregg said, “but then the Giants won in Texas. I told my sons if it happens again in our lifetime, we have to go. We knew we were going to come down for this one since we didn’t want to risk missing it again.”
The
youth minister grew up a Giants fan in the Bay Area and has convinced
his sons to root for his childhood team. “The Mariners are our American
League team though,” Gregg added.
Gregg had actually taken his sons to the Knothole Gang section back in the 2002 World Series. “They actually let us stay the entire game since the boys were so young,” he said. But he wanted to take them again, when they were older and would have more lasting memories of the experience. They also had been in line since 9:30 a.m., ordering pizzas and doughnuts.
They actually were still hoping to secure tickets for inside the ballpark. A friend of theirs is a close friend of Tigers infielder Ramon Santiago from when he played with the Mariners, and there was a chance Santiago would have some tickets left over.
I’m sure sitting inside the park would be the memory of a lifetime. But I also think waiting in line with your kids for eight hours, eating pizzas and doughnuts, is something the Bernheisels will never forget.
No, the best view is the one in the right field, where fans get to watch Giants games for free, peering through a gate but with a ground-level view of the action.
[+] Enlarge
David SchoenfieldGiants fans wait for hours for the chance to see the World Series for free.
David SchoenfieldGiants fans wait for hours for the chance to see the World Series for free.Scott, a 47-year-old fan from Sacramento, Calif., didn’t want his last name used since he was skipping out of work, but he had left at 6 a.m. to pick up his friend, Mike Costuros. They arrived at 9:30 a.m. to get to the front of the line. Actually, Mike was in line at 9:30. Scott got there at 10 after parking more than a mile from the ballpark.
“We’ve been looking forward to this, watching six elimination games, calling each other,” Scott said. “We didn’t come last night because of [Justin] Verlander.”
“We thought we’d lose,” Mike said.
The two had looked online for tickets, but Mike said the cheapest he found were standing-room-only seats for $380 -- and that was before the Giants beat the Cardinals in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. After that game, tickets were going for $1,000 or more.
Instead, Scott said this will cost them $20 -- $6 to cross the Bay Bridge, $10 to park and $4 to cross back over the Carquinez Bridge. “I took my son two years ago for $17. This year I paid inflationary prices.”
The two had brought chicken sandwiches, Big Hunk candy bars -- “I always have Big Hunk candy bars when I watch baseball,” Scott said -- and said they had to come tonight because the series may not to return to San Francisco. “The Giants are going to sweep,” Scott said. “It’s possible we could get an epic series and the Giants win Game 6 on Halloween, but the Giants are on fire right now.”
Gregg Bernheisel had come from even farther than Sacramento. He and his two sons, Ryan, 16, and Michael, 17, flew down from Vashon Island, Wash. They had to catch a 4 a.m. ferry to get to the airport for a 6 a.m. flight.
“We had tickets for Games 6 and 7 two years ago and were going to drive down,” Gregg said, “but then the Giants won in Texas. I told my sons if it happens again in our lifetime, we have to go. We knew we were going to come down for this one since we didn’t want to risk missing it again.”
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Three innings of free baseball beats astronomical World Series prices for some hard-core fans.
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Three innings of free baseball beats astronomical World Series prices for some hard-core fans.Gregg had actually taken his sons to the Knothole Gang section back in the 2002 World Series. “They actually let us stay the entire game since the boys were so young,” he said. But he wanted to take them again, when they were older and would have more lasting memories of the experience. They also had been in line since 9:30 a.m., ordering pizzas and doughnuts.
They actually were still hoping to secure tickets for inside the ballpark. A friend of theirs is a close friend of Tigers infielder Ramon Santiago from when he played with the Mariners, and there was a chance Santiago would have some tickets left over.
I’m sure sitting inside the park would be the memory of a lifetime. But I also think waiting in line with your kids for eight hours, eating pizzas and doughnuts, is something the Bernheisels will never forget.
In Windows 8, the iPad has its first real challenge
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Since its 2010 debut, no tablet has come close to unseating the mighty iPad.
The many contenders can all be tossed in two piles: "Me too" devices or cheaper/smaller tablets. Neither has dealt Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) a serious blow, and the iPad Mini -- unveiled on Tuesday -- is likely to solidify Apple's dominance.
But Windows 8 offers a compelling third way to take on the iPad: by putting a full PC experience on a tablet.
Most tablets currently on the market are complementary devices. They have bare-bones operating systems that make on-the-go media consumption and Web browsing a cinch. For most users, they haven't yet replaced the need for a PC.
Few people create documents, spreadsheets or presentations on their iPads, and even fewer run any serious business applications on them. Today's tablets don't multitask well, and IT departments that want to dig deep into the operating system to customize settings aren't going to have much luck. You still need a PC to do that.
The solution Windows 8 offers is inspired -- and controversial. The new operating system, which goes on sale Friday, has two modes: the "Start screen," filled with large app tiles, full-screen apps and hidden menu functions; and the more traditional "Desktop mode," with smaller app icons, taskbars and menu ribbons. Both modes work with touch or a mouse.
Unlike Apple, which makes separate operating systems for mobile devices and Macs, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) thinks users want a full, "no compromises" PC experience on their tablets.
Will buyers follow Microsoft's lead? Analysts are divided, and the range of estimates is staggering.
IHS iSuppli forecasts that there will be nearly 20 million tablets in use by the end of next year that run either Windows 8 or Windows RT (a stripped down version of Windows 8 that does not support legacy Windows applications).
That would be a nice start, but it's nowhere near the 73 million iPads Gartner expects Apple to sell next year. There will be 118 million iPad users by then, IHS estimates.
Other analysts are far more conservative. Forrester Research thinks Windows 8 and RT will be on a combined 7 million tablets by the end of next year. IDC is even more pessimistic, forecasting that just under 5 million Windows tablets will be in use by the end of 2013.
Though its immediate prospects seem bleak, most analysts think Windows will eventually gain steam. By 2016, IHS iSuppli thinks Windows will control 25% of the tablet market -- a strong competitor to Apple, which will still control nearly half the market, down from its 70% share today. Forrester predicts that Microsoft will have a 27% share of the tablet market in 2016, compared to 53% for Apple.
Windows tablets will need beautiful hardware, a robust app store and aggressive marketing to really take on the iPad.
"Microsoft needs to make users want to see the products, pick them up and touch their screens," says Michael Silver, analyst at Gartner. "Users have to go into the store wanting Windows — a tall order."
Microsoft's own tablet, the Surface, is off to a rocky start.
It's backed by an expensive advertising campaign, and its kick-in-the-PC-industry's-rear strategy has sparked a batch of design innovations. Tablet PCs with backflipping keyboards, rotating screens and pop-off displays -- some of which look eerily similar to the Surface -- are making their way to store shelves. That's exactly what Microsoft hoped would happen when it flung down the gauntlet at PC makers.
Microsoft's Windows Store app marketplace is still sparse, though -- a fact mentioned frequently in Surface reviews.
It's a chicken-and-egg problem. Developers won't build Windows apps until millions of customers have mobile Windows devices, and customers are leery of buying devices that lack popular apps. That's an obstacle Microsoft has battled for two years on Windows Phone, which currently has a scant 3.5% market share, IDC estimates.
Still, Microsoft has plenty of partners joining in its tablet push. Dell (DELL, Fortune 500), Samsung, Toshiba, Asus, Lenovo and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) are all releasing new Windows 8 devices, and Microsoft's Surface Pro will go on sale in January.
Analysts say there's an underserved market of buyers looking for a tablet they can actually do work on. If Microsoft can connect with those customers, it might finally make headway in a market that's been passing it by.
"Windows 8, together with Office 2013, will be perceived as a more functional device than a consumer tablet," said Rick Sherlund, analyst at Nomura Securities. "We think of this as being about more than a pretty face."
The many contenders can all be tossed in two piles: "Me too" devices or cheaper/smaller tablets. Neither has dealt Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) a serious blow, and the iPad Mini -- unveiled on Tuesday -- is likely to solidify Apple's dominance.
Most tablets currently on the market are complementary devices. They have bare-bones operating systems that make on-the-go media consumption and Web browsing a cinch. For most users, they haven't yet replaced the need for a PC.
Few people create documents, spreadsheets or presentations on their iPads, and even fewer run any serious business applications on them. Today's tablets don't multitask well, and IT departments that want to dig deep into the operating system to customize settings aren't going to have much luck. You still need a PC to do that.
The solution Windows 8 offers is inspired -- and controversial. The new operating system, which goes on sale Friday, has two modes: the "Start screen," filled with large app tiles, full-screen apps and hidden menu functions; and the more traditional "Desktop mode," with smaller app icons, taskbars and menu ribbons. Both modes work with touch or a mouse.
Unlike Apple, which makes separate operating systems for mobile devices and Macs, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) thinks users want a full, "no compromises" PC experience on their tablets.
Will buyers follow Microsoft's lead? Analysts are divided, and the range of estimates is staggering.
IHS iSuppli forecasts that there will be nearly 20 million tablets in use by the end of next year that run either Windows 8 or Windows RT (a stripped down version of Windows 8 that does not support legacy Windows applications).
That would be a nice start, but it's nowhere near the 73 million iPads Gartner expects Apple to sell next year. There will be 118 million iPad users by then, IHS estimates.
Other analysts are far more conservative. Forrester Research thinks Windows 8 and RT will be on a combined 7 million tablets by the end of next year. IDC is even more pessimistic, forecasting that just under 5 million Windows tablets will be in use by the end of 2013.
Though its immediate prospects seem bleak, most analysts think Windows will eventually gain steam. By 2016, IHS iSuppli thinks Windows will control 25% of the tablet market -- a strong competitor to Apple, which will still control nearly half the market, down from its 70% share today. Forrester predicts that Microsoft will have a 27% share of the tablet market in 2016, compared to 53% for Apple.
Windows tablets will need beautiful hardware, a robust app store and aggressive marketing to really take on the iPad.
"Microsoft needs to make users want to see the products, pick them up and touch their screens," says Michael Silver, analyst at Gartner. "Users have to go into the store wanting Windows — a tall order."
Microsoft's own tablet, the Surface, is off to a rocky start.
It's backed by an expensive advertising campaign, and its kick-in-the-PC-industry's-rear strategy has sparked a batch of design innovations. Tablet PCs with backflipping keyboards, rotating screens and pop-off displays -- some of which look eerily similar to the Surface -- are making their way to store shelves. That's exactly what Microsoft hoped would happen when it flung down the gauntlet at PC makers.
Microsoft's Windows Store app marketplace is still sparse, though -- a fact mentioned frequently in Surface reviews.
It's a chicken-and-egg problem. Developers won't build Windows apps until millions of customers have mobile Windows devices, and customers are leery of buying devices that lack popular apps. That's an obstacle Microsoft has battled for two years on Windows Phone, which currently has a scant 3.5% market share, IDC estimates.
Still, Microsoft has plenty of partners joining in its tablet push. Dell (DELL, Fortune 500), Samsung, Toshiba, Asus, Lenovo and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) are all releasing new Windows 8 devices, and Microsoft's Surface Pro will go on sale in January.
Analysts say there's an underserved market of buyers looking for a tablet they can actually do work on. If Microsoft can connect with those customers, it might finally make headway in a market that's been passing it by.
"Windows 8, together with Office 2013, will be perceived as a more functional device than a consumer tablet," said Rick Sherlund, analyst at Nomura Securities. "We think of this as being about more than a pretty face."
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
top trends
Digital Death
January 20th, 2010
Regular readers might (just) remember that one of my top 10 trends for 2009 (i.e. last year) was ‘Digital Diets’. It didn’t happen. But wait…it’s happening now!
This is just in from Sean Boyle at JWT in New York. Rock star John Mayer has blogged* that his fans should join him for a weekly ‘digital cleanse.’ Meanwhile, if things really get too much you can now use something called the Web 2.0 Suicide Machine.
web-20.png
No, this isn’t anything physically nasty. Just a way of getting rid of your digital friends. Once you nominate a social network you relinquish your login details to the machine and it proceeds to change your password so that you can no longer access your account. It then systematically deletes every one of your friends from that particular platform and frees you from the shackles of social media.Facebook has blocked the application but Twitter, MySpace and LinkedIn have yet to do so.
* I know, the irony of doing this on a blog!
Posted in Predictions, 2010 Trends | No Comments »
Newspaper Statistics (not what you think)
January 19th, 2010
Newspapers are dying right? Wrong. Newspaper circulation grew by 1.3% worldwide in 2008 to almost 540m daily sales. Adding the free daily papers, the circulation increase was 1.62% - or 13% over the previous 5 years. Overall, 1.9 billion people read a daily newspaper and newspapers reach 41% more people than the internet. OK, in 2008 in the US there was a fall of 3.7% , whilst in Europe the fall was 1.8% but so what? The model isn’t broken. It’s just that some titles are badly run, have too much debt and are in the wrong regions.
Posted in Stats, Newspapers | No Comments »
2010 Trends - coming true already
January 18th, 2010
ba-2.png
Remember Unsupervised Adults? (Trend #4 - January 7).
Posted in Travel & Tourism, 2010 Trends | 2 Comments »
Scenarios for the End of America
January 18th, 2010
us1.png
Nice article on Slate a while back titled How Is America Going To End? by Josh Levin. Essentially a brief look at the ways in which the US could come to a sticky end over the next 100 years. Overall it’s highly unlikely that the US will ‘end’ but a low probability/high impact event could have some really significant consequences.
Here are a just two of the ideas:
Radical War
What happens when a large group of young, unemployed and disillusioned Hispanics comes up against a small population of relatively affluent whites? This reminds me of China where there is a huge imbalance of young males. This is OK if the economy is booming, not so OK if it tanks.
Human 2.0
What happens when the ordinary people encounter a group of synthetically engineered and biologically enhanced supermen and women? Sounds crazy but it isn’t. Income inequality is increasing significantly and we already have a group of transnational executives that can afford the best schools, the best healthcare (which includes body modification and brain training) and the best transport and security.
Posted in Scenarios, Wildcards | No Comments »
Quote of the Week
January 17th, 2010
“Copenhagen showed us the new normal…the US has lost influence, China plays spoiler and tiny nations veto anything they don’t like.”
- Leslie Geld, the Daily Beast.
Posted in Quotes | No Comments »
Food trends for 2010
January 16th, 2010
sauce.jpg
IN OUT
Butchers Mixologists
Lamb Pork
Immunity foods Omega 3
Homebrew Mad science cocktails
Potlucks Formal dining
Chicken Wagu beef
Locally grown Faraway foods
GMO * Overpriced organics
Source: Epicurious & some others
* Way too early actually. But wait and see.
Posted in Food & Drink, 2010 Trends | No Comments »
2000 AD
January 15th, 2010
Nothing dates quite like the future. 2000 AD is a weekly science fiction comic that was first published in Britain in 1977. So, of course, it’s good fun to look back at a few old issues to see what has come to pass.
2000.jpg
What, in short, did the comic get right?
Well there are no utopian futures in AD 2000. People live in mega-cities and there is an absence of work. Cameras are everywhere. So a bit like Britain in 2010 really. There is also cloning and genetic engineering.
One of the key characters in the comic was (is) Judge Dredd, an almost faceless lawman that is empowered as both judge and jury. Another character was Torquemada, a dictator with the slogan “be pure, be vigilant, behave.” The future of policing? Let’s hope not. One thing that the comic didn’t see coming was the demise of comics themselves. It seems that the market is in decline, knocked off the shelf by PSPs, Facebook and MySpace.
Posted in Predictions | No Comments »
Population Estimates for the year 2050
January 14th, 2010
Australia 35m
Saudi Arabia 54m
Iraq 54m
UK 56m
Afghanistan 61m
Germany 73m
Turkey 100m
Iran 114m
Philippines 130m
Mexico 146m
Indonesia 311m
Pakistan 345m
US 349m
China 1,477m
India 1,528m
Ref: World Mapper.org
Posted in Stats | No Comments »
The Ageing Opportunity
January 13th, 2010
55.png
I’m often asked what you can practically do with some of these long-term trends like ageing. Well it’s not rocket science. It’s as simple as a good rocket salad. Here’s a great example of leveraging the ageing demographic from the UK. Link to site in comments.
Posted in Ageing | 1 Comment »
How to be a Futurist (Part 2)
January 12th, 2010
1. Cultivate the look of an expert (glasses are always good)
2. Sound really certain about things (people love precision)
3. Go against any traditional wisdom (always pick the opposite position)
4. Say things that are very difficult to substantiate
5. Be hazy about when things will happen
6. Never reveal your sources
7. If any prediction ever comes true make a lot of noise about it
8. If anything doesn’t come true come true keep really quiet about it
9. Take a big position on big issues…then wait until you are right
10. Steal things from all over the place*
* For example, most of this is adapted from The Evil Futurists’ Guide to World Domination, but I’ve already made the mistake of telling you that!
January 20th, 2010
Regular readers might (just) remember that one of my top 10 trends for 2009 (i.e. last year) was ‘Digital Diets’. It didn’t happen. But wait…it’s happening now!
This is just in from Sean Boyle at JWT in New York. Rock star John Mayer has blogged* that his fans should join him for a weekly ‘digital cleanse.’ Meanwhile, if things really get too much you can now use something called the Web 2.0 Suicide Machine.
web-20.png
No, this isn’t anything physically nasty. Just a way of getting rid of your digital friends. Once you nominate a social network you relinquish your login details to the machine and it proceeds to change your password so that you can no longer access your account. It then systematically deletes every one of your friends from that particular platform and frees you from the shackles of social media.Facebook has blocked the application but Twitter, MySpace and LinkedIn have yet to do so.
* I know, the irony of doing this on a blog!
Posted in Predictions, 2010 Trends | No Comments »
Newspaper Statistics (not what you think)
January 19th, 2010
Newspapers are dying right? Wrong. Newspaper circulation grew by 1.3% worldwide in 2008 to almost 540m daily sales. Adding the free daily papers, the circulation increase was 1.62% - or 13% over the previous 5 years. Overall, 1.9 billion people read a daily newspaper and newspapers reach 41% more people than the internet. OK, in 2008 in the US there was a fall of 3.7% , whilst in Europe the fall was 1.8% but so what? The model isn’t broken. It’s just that some titles are badly run, have too much debt and are in the wrong regions.
Posted in Stats, Newspapers | No Comments »
2010 Trends - coming true already
January 18th, 2010
ba-2.png
Remember Unsupervised Adults? (Trend #4 - January 7).
Posted in Travel & Tourism, 2010 Trends | 2 Comments »
Scenarios for the End of America
January 18th, 2010
us1.png
Nice article on Slate a while back titled How Is America Going To End? by Josh Levin. Essentially a brief look at the ways in which the US could come to a sticky end over the next 100 years. Overall it’s highly unlikely that the US will ‘end’ but a low probability/high impact event could have some really significant consequences.
Here are a just two of the ideas:
Radical War
What happens when a large group of young, unemployed and disillusioned Hispanics comes up against a small population of relatively affluent whites? This reminds me of China where there is a huge imbalance of young males. This is OK if the economy is booming, not so OK if it tanks.
Human 2.0
What happens when the ordinary people encounter a group of synthetically engineered and biologically enhanced supermen and women? Sounds crazy but it isn’t. Income inequality is increasing significantly and we already have a group of transnational executives that can afford the best schools, the best healthcare (which includes body modification and brain training) and the best transport and security.
Posted in Scenarios, Wildcards | No Comments »
Quote of the Week
January 17th, 2010
“Copenhagen showed us the new normal…the US has lost influence, China plays spoiler and tiny nations veto anything they don’t like.”
- Leslie Geld, the Daily Beast.
Posted in Quotes | No Comments »
Food trends for 2010
January 16th, 2010
sauce.jpg
IN OUT
Butchers Mixologists
Lamb Pork
Immunity foods Omega 3
Homebrew Mad science cocktails
Potlucks Formal dining
Chicken Wagu beef
Locally grown Faraway foods
GMO * Overpriced organics
Source: Epicurious & some others
* Way too early actually. But wait and see.
Posted in Food & Drink, 2010 Trends | No Comments »
2000 AD
January 15th, 2010
Nothing dates quite like the future. 2000 AD is a weekly science fiction comic that was first published in Britain in 1977. So, of course, it’s good fun to look back at a few old issues to see what has come to pass.
2000.jpg
What, in short, did the comic get right?
Well there are no utopian futures in AD 2000. People live in mega-cities and there is an absence of work. Cameras are everywhere. So a bit like Britain in 2010 really. There is also cloning and genetic engineering.
One of the key characters in the comic was (is) Judge Dredd, an almost faceless lawman that is empowered as both judge and jury. Another character was Torquemada, a dictator with the slogan “be pure, be vigilant, behave.” The future of policing? Let’s hope not. One thing that the comic didn’t see coming was the demise of comics themselves. It seems that the market is in decline, knocked off the shelf by PSPs, Facebook and MySpace.
Posted in Predictions | No Comments »
Population Estimates for the year 2050
January 14th, 2010
Australia 35m
Saudi Arabia 54m
Iraq 54m
UK 56m
Afghanistan 61m
Germany 73m
Turkey 100m
Iran 114m
Philippines 130m
Mexico 146m
Indonesia 311m
Pakistan 345m
US 349m
China 1,477m
India 1,528m
Ref: World Mapper.org
Posted in Stats | No Comments »
The Ageing Opportunity
January 13th, 2010
55.png
I’m often asked what you can practically do with some of these long-term trends like ageing. Well it’s not rocket science. It’s as simple as a good rocket salad. Here’s a great example of leveraging the ageing demographic from the UK. Link to site in comments.
Posted in Ageing | 1 Comment »
How to be a Futurist (Part 2)
January 12th, 2010
1. Cultivate the look of an expert (glasses are always good)
2. Sound really certain about things (people love precision)
3. Go against any traditional wisdom (always pick the opposite position)
4. Say things that are very difficult to substantiate
5. Be hazy about when things will happen
6. Never reveal your sources
7. If any prediction ever comes true make a lot of noise about it
8. If anything doesn’t come true come true keep really quiet about it
9. Take a big position on big issues…then wait until you are right
10. Steal things from all over the place*
* For example, most of this is adapted from The Evil Futurists’ Guide to World Domination, but I’ve already made the mistake of telling you that!
One Story Out of Haiti
I have written a few times about the charity, Mercy & Sharing, which has been working exclusively in Haiti for over 15 years. Susie Krabacher and her husband Joe, an attorney in Colorado, have done amazing work for the children in Haiti. Mercy & Sharing, www.haitichildren.org has established schools, orphanages, a hospital, medical clinics and feeding centers despite corruption, threats of violence and a lack of infrastructure. Most of their work is centered in or around Port-au-Prince.
Cartoon by Nate Beeler - Washington Examiner (click to purchase)
Cartoon by Nate Beeler - Washington Examiner (click to purchase)
They have been responsible for saving thousands of children in Haiti from disease, poverty, violence and the black market. However, the earthquake that devastated the area is threatening the well-being of their children as well as everyone on staff.
What follows is an account sent to me by Joe Krabacher of their current conditions as of Sunday morning. It is a disturbing account of the nightmare that has descended on the poorest country in the Western hemisphere that is only 600 miles from the coast of Florida.
Susie drove into Port-au-Prince with a translator, security, satellite phones, medical supplies and new four wheel drives hoping that their children were spared the devastation.
“Susie, Jeff, Bill, Jacques and two Haitian police (as security), crossed the border into Haiti and arrived at the Williamson project this afternoon,” wrote Joe. “Unfortunately, things are not as we had hoped. Typically we have approximately 85 employees working eight hour shifts around-the-clock. There were only a handful of employees on site trying to take care of hundreds of children. They are trying to stabilize the situation in Williamson before nightfall.
“Many of the children have not had water or food in two days; the handicapped children have bed sores. There is no diesel fuel to run the generators, which power the water pumps, electric and internet communications. The well’s hand pumps are largely ineffective. They are getting water and food for the children this evening and then searching for a place to stay that might have internet or other communications.
View cartoons about the situation in Hairi
View cartoons about the situation in Haiti
“We now have reports that the children of the abandoned baby unit have been without food and water for two days. They are reportedly alive but the morgue is piling up with hundreds of bodies, and the morgue is located right next to the abandoned baby unit.
“The office building and hospital in Port-au-Prince have been completely demolished. We have lost all of our paperwork and records, which are lying in the debris and blowing around the streets. The project has been completely looted.
“The team is traveling to Port-au-Prince tomorrow to go to the Cazeau orphanage. We have reports that Cazeau is not safe because the walls collapsed, there are men with machetes robbing anyone with anything or value, and the people in the neighborhood have stormed the building, overpowered the guard and have taken up occupancy in what is left of the buildings on that property. We intend to remove all the remaining children from Cazeau and take them to Williamson tomorrow.
“Madame Chenet, (a staff member) is very traumatized. She has been living in her car and because she has experienced the devastation, she is likely in shock. Dr. Rodriquez lost four family members, Dr. Algenor lost his brother. Our accountant lost his two brothers. Madame Chenet said it is total devastation around her.
“Above all, pray fervently for the US team and the children, as well as the staff, our medical doctors and medical personnel.”
They are in urgent need of cash donations and I’ve seen firsthand the love and support of my readers for others. If you would like to help Mercy & Sharing, you can donate on line at www.haitichildren.org. Please do not send supplies. The money that has been donated so far has helped them to collect over 100 tons of supplies that they are dispersing as quickly as they can to save the children and staff members in their care.
Cartoon by Nate Beeler - Washington Examiner (click to purchase)
Cartoon by Nate Beeler - Washington Examiner (click to purchase)
They have been responsible for saving thousands of children in Haiti from disease, poverty, violence and the black market. However, the earthquake that devastated the area is threatening the well-being of their children as well as everyone on staff.
What follows is an account sent to me by Joe Krabacher of their current conditions as of Sunday morning. It is a disturbing account of the nightmare that has descended on the poorest country in the Western hemisphere that is only 600 miles from the coast of Florida.
Susie drove into Port-au-Prince with a translator, security, satellite phones, medical supplies and new four wheel drives hoping that their children were spared the devastation.
“Susie, Jeff, Bill, Jacques and two Haitian police (as security), crossed the border into Haiti and arrived at the Williamson project this afternoon,” wrote Joe. “Unfortunately, things are not as we had hoped. Typically we have approximately 85 employees working eight hour shifts around-the-clock. There were only a handful of employees on site trying to take care of hundreds of children. They are trying to stabilize the situation in Williamson before nightfall.
“Many of the children have not had water or food in two days; the handicapped children have bed sores. There is no diesel fuel to run the generators, which power the water pumps, electric and internet communications. The well’s hand pumps are largely ineffective. They are getting water and food for the children this evening and then searching for a place to stay that might have internet or other communications.
View cartoons about the situation in Hairi
View cartoons about the situation in Haiti
“We now have reports that the children of the abandoned baby unit have been without food and water for two days. They are reportedly alive but the morgue is piling up with hundreds of bodies, and the morgue is located right next to the abandoned baby unit.
“The office building and hospital in Port-au-Prince have been completely demolished. We have lost all of our paperwork and records, which are lying in the debris and blowing around the streets. The project has been completely looted.
“The team is traveling to Port-au-Prince tomorrow to go to the Cazeau orphanage. We have reports that Cazeau is not safe because the walls collapsed, there are men with machetes robbing anyone with anything or value, and the people in the neighborhood have stormed the building, overpowered the guard and have taken up occupancy in what is left of the buildings on that property. We intend to remove all the remaining children from Cazeau and take them to Williamson tomorrow.
“Madame Chenet, (a staff member) is very traumatized. She has been living in her car and because she has experienced the devastation, she is likely in shock. Dr. Rodriquez lost four family members, Dr. Algenor lost his brother. Our accountant lost his two brothers. Madame Chenet said it is total devastation around her.
“Above all, pray fervently for the US team and the children, as well as the staff, our medical doctors and medical personnel.”
They are in urgent need of cash donations and I’ve seen firsthand the love and support of my readers for others. If you would like to help Mercy & Sharing, you can donate on line at www.haitichildren.org. Please do not send supplies. The money that has been donated so far has helped them to collect over 100 tons of supplies that they are dispersing as quickly as they can to save the children and staff members in their care.
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